The Nest Weekly: Two Bay Area Markets Hiding Inside One Flat Median

October 26, 2026 | Kaveh Sartipi, Nest Mortgage | Danville, CA

Rates just posted their first dip in nine weeks, prices are flat-ish on paper, and inventory is tight almost everywhere you look. Here is what that actually means if you are buying or selling in the Bay Area right now.

The Rate Snapshot

Mortgage rates climbed for seven straight weeks into mid-October, touching their highest level since late 2023, then held flat before easing this past week. Here is the national benchmark from the Freddie Mac weekly survey:

Benchmark (Freddie Mac weekly survey)	Oct 22, 2026	Oct 15, 2026	One year ago
30-year fixed average	7.32%	7.40%	6.19%
15-year fixed average	6.68%	6.71%	5.44%

Rates as of October 26, 2026 — subject to qualification. Current rates posted at NestMortgage.ai/rates.

One week of relief does not make a trend. The move came from Treasury yields cooling off, and yields can turn around quickly. The better question is not "where are rates going" but "what payment works for my budget today, and what is my plan if the market gives me a better window later?"

Current rates are published on NestMortgage.ai/rates and update regularly. Subject to qualification.

The Market: Two Markets Inside One Flat Median

California's statewide median price landed just under $900K in July (the latest statewide read), roughly flat versus last year. Flat sounds calm. It is not. Underneath it, the Bay Area is splitting into very different markets.

County (single-family)	Median price	Year over year	Months of supply	Days on market
San Francisco (July)	$2,050,000	up about 25%	0.8	13
San Mateo (July)	$2,123,000	up about 11%	1.2	14
Santa Clara (July)	$1,900,000	up about 1%	1.6	14
Alameda (August)	$1,269,000	up about 1%	1.9	14
Contra Costa (August)	$865,000	up about 3%	2.4	20
Marin (August)	$1,778,000	up about 16%	2.0	21
Napa (August)	$950,000	down about 3%	6.1	53
Solano (August)	$575,000	down about 7%	2.8	29

Data note: San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara figures are the latest I could confirm (July 2026). East Bay and North Bay figures are August 2026.

Look at the spread. San Francisco has under a month of supply and prices up double digits. Napa has over six months of supply and softening prices. Same region, same rate environment, completely different negotiating leverage.

Closer to home, Contra Costa (including Danville and the Tri-Valley corridor) is sitting around 2.4 months of supply with homes moving in about 20 days. That is still a seller-leaning market, but with room for a well-prepared buyer to negotiate.

Inventory: Tight, and Getting Tighter

Single-family inventory is down sharply from a year ago: East Bay down roughly 17%, North Bay down roughly 30%. New listings in the North Bay fell nearly 18% year over year. When fewer homes come to market, the ones that do get attention fast, especially when priced correctly.

Condos tell a different story. East Bay and North Bay condos are running four or more months of supply with softer prices in several counties, which is real opportunity for buyers who can be selective.

What To Do With This

For buyers: Decide your payment number first, then shop. Get a full pre-approval (not a quick pre-qual) so your offer reads as strong in a tight, fast-moving county. In higher-supply pockets like condos and parts of the North Bay, you may have room to negotiate on price or terms. A conversation now lets us map out options well before you write an offer.

For sellers: If you are in a low-supply county, buyers are competing for the few homes that exist, but they are also payment-sensitive. Price it to the market, present it well, and be ready to negotiate on terms. In higher-supply areas, pricing discipline matters even more.

If you want to talk through your numbers, call or text me at 925.718.0700 or visit NestMortgage.ai. No pressure, just a straight read on where you stand.

Kaveh Sartipi Mortgage Broker & Advisor | Nest Mortgage 925.718.0700 | Kaveh@MyNestMortgage.com | NestMortgage.ai 100 School Street, Danville, CA 94526

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Kaveh Sartipi | NMLS# 247776 | DRE# 01363588 | Answer Home Loans, Inc. is a Licensed Real Estate Broker, California Department of Real Estate DRE# 02058505 | NMLS# 1729528 | Equal Housing Lender. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to credit approval, underwriting, and program guidelines. Rates and terms subject to change without notice.