The Nest Weekly: Rates Crossed 7%. The Bay Area Median Didn't Blink.

Week of September 28, 2026 | From Kaveh Sartipi, Nest Mortgage — Danville, CA

Big week for headlines. The benchmark 30-year fixed average crossed 7% for the first time since January 2025, following last week's Fed rate hike and a 10-year Treasury pushing toward levels we haven't seen in nearly two decades. Meanwhile, the Bay Area's median home price barely moved.

If you only read the headline numbers, you'd think nothing is happening locally. That's the trap. Let's walk through it.

Rate Snapshot

Loan Type	This Week (Sept 24)	Last Week (Sept 17)	One Year Ago
30-Year Fixed (national avg)	7.03%	6.95%	6.30%
15-Year Fixed (national avg)	6.42%	6.26%	n/a

Rates as of September 28, 2026 — subject to qualification. Current rates posted at NestMortgage.ai/rates.

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of September 24, 2026. These are national survey averages, not quotes, and your actual rate depends on credit, down payment, loan size, property type, and program.

What's driving it: Sticky inflation, bond-market jitters, and the Fed's hike earlier this month. The 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates tend to follow, climbed toward roughly 5.1% midweek. In the current market, the path lower likely depends on inflation data cooling, so I wouldn't plan a purchase around a quick reversal.

For perspective: the 30-year averaged 6.67% for the month of August. We're up meaningfully in about four weeks. On a jumbo-sized Bay Area loan, that move matters to monthly payment, which is exactly why comparing structures (fixed vs. ARM, points vs. no points) is worth doing before you write an offer.

Current rates are published on NestMortgage.ai/rates and update regularly. Subject to qualification.

The Market: Two Bay Areas Inside One Flat Median

The C.A.R. August report put the nine-county Bay Area median at $1,272,000, down 0.2% from a year ago. Flat. Boring. Except it isn't.

County	Aug 2026 Median	Year-over-Year	Unsold Inventory (months)	Median Days on Market
San Francisco	$1,875,000	+25.0%	1.3	34
San Mateo	$2,250,000	+13.2%	1.7	11
Marin	$1,650,500	+8.4%	2.7	56
Alameda	$1,285,000	+1.3%	2.3	14
Santa Clara	$1,900,000	0.0%	2.1	12
Napa	$947,000	-2.9%	6.6	91
Sonoma	$790,000	-5.1%	3.7	60
Solano	$575,000	-7.3%	3.3	40
Contra Costa	n/a	n/a	2.7	20
Bay Area	$1,272,000	-0.2%	2.6	22

Source: California Association of REALTORS®, August 2026 Home Sales and Price Report. Contra Costa median price not reported in this release.

Market one: San Francisco and the Peninsula. SF prices up 25% year over year with just 1.3 months of supply, and active listings in San Francisco down more than half from last August. San Mateo homes are selling in a median of 11 days. Demand tied to local tech and AI wealth is running into almost no inventory.

Market two: The North Bay and the outer East Bay. Solano, Sonoma, and Napa are down year over year with noticeably more supply and longer time on market. Napa is sitting at 6.6 months of inventory, which is buyer's-market territory.

The middle (Alameda, Santa Clara, Contra Costa) is balanced to slightly tight: homes still moving in two to three weeks, prices holding.

Inventory: Rising, Slowly

Statewide, the Unsold Inventory Index rose to 3.7 months in August, a six-month high, even though active listings dipped. Translation: fewer homes listed, but they're taking longer to sell. That's demand softening, and that was before rates crossed 7%.

Bay Area sales fell 4.2% year over year. C.A.R. expects prices to ease through fall and winter as they typically do seasonally, and higher rates could add to that pressure.

What This Means for You

For buyers: Fall with rising inventory is historically when negotiating leverage shows up, especially in the North Bay and outer East Bay. Don't wait for rates to "come back"; nobody can promise when that happens. Instead, get fully pre-approved, compare a fixed rate against an ARM and a points buydown, and ask for seller credits where days on market are long. In SF and the Peninsula, expect competition to continue and make your offer strong from the start.

For sellers: Price for your micro-market, not the headline median. If you're in a 1–2 month supply area, you still have leverage. If you're in Napa, Sonoma, or Solano, a sharp list price and a buyer-credit strategy (for example, offering to fund a rate buydown) will likely move you faster than a price chase later.

Every market has a play. The job is knowing which one you're in.

Questions about how this week's numbers affect your plans? Call or text me at 925.718.0700 or email Kaveh@MyNestMortgage.com. I shop a network of wholesale lenders on your behalf, so we can compare options side by side.

— Kaveh

Kaveh Sartipi | Mortgage Broker & Advisor | Nest Mortgage 100 School Street, Danville, CA 94526 925.718.0700 | Kaveh@MyNestMortgage.com | NestMortgage.ai

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Kaveh Sartipi | NMLS# 247776 | DRE# 01363588 | Answer Home Loans, Inc. is a Licensed Real Estate Broker, California Department of Real Estate DRE# 02058505 | NMLS# 1729528 | Equal Housing Lender. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to credit approval, underwriting, and program guidelines. Rates and terms subject to change without notice.