Welcome to your market update for the week of June 29, 2026. It was a steady-but-watchful week: the Federal Reserve held rates again and leaned into a more inflation-focused tone, keeping mortgage rates parked right around the 6.5% mark. Nationally, inventory keeps building — but here in the Bay Area the story runs the other way, with scarce supply, fierce demand, and well-priced listings still selling in days.
Market Trends & Stats
The most recent national read (May 2026, the latest NAR release) shows existing-home sales rising 3.2% both month-over-month and year-over-year to a 4.17M annual pace. Prices kept grinding higher — the 35th consecutive month of annual gains — while inventory loosened to its most comfortable level in years. The result is more choice for buyers nationally, but affordability remains the gatekeeper.
| Metric | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| Existing-home sales (annual rate) | 4.17M |
| Median home price | $429,300 |
| Inventory supply | 4.5 months |
Mortgage Rate Update
Rates drifted slightly higher across the week. The 30-year fixed opened near 6.49% (national average) and closed Friday around 6.56% as bond yields ticked up following the Fed's more hawkish stance. The takeaway: rates remain range-bound in the mid-6s, and small daily moves are the norm right now.
Rates as of June 29, 2026 — subject to qualification. Current rates posted at NestMortgage.ai/rates.
Inside Lending Insight (Week of June 22): New listings stayed above last year's pace for a second straight week, and applications for new-home purchase mortgages rose 3.8% year-over-year in May. The Fed left rates unchanged but removed its projected 2026 rate cut — markets are now pricing in a longer period of elevated rates. The market has also held more than one million active listings for nearly two months, the widest selection buyers have seen in years.
Current rates are published on NestMortgage.ai/rates and update regularly. Subject to qualification.
Economy News
The bigger economic picture is all about inflation and patience. Tariff costs are gradually working their way into consumer prices, and the Fed now sees PCE inflation ending the year near 3.6% — well above its 2% target. That's why policymakers removed their projected rate cut and signaled rates may stay higher for longer. Oil has cooled to the mid-$70s after a volatile spring, and the labor market remains stable.
| Indicator | Current |
|---|---|
| WTI crude (per barrel) | ~$76 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% |
| Fed funds rate | 3.50–3.75% |
Bay Area Local Housing
While the nation gets more inventory, the Bay Area is moving the other direction. San Francisco home prices climbed roughly 16% year-over-year over the three months ending in May, with single-family medians pushing toward $2.2M as listings dropped more than 40% from a year ago. The AI and tech resurgence is fueling renewed demand in SF, San Jose, SoMa, and Mission Bay, and core neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Noe Valley, and Bernal Heights continue to lead price growth. Across San Mateo, Alameda, Santa Clara, Contra Costa, and Marin, the theme is consistent: tight supply, strong demand, and multiple offers on well-presented homes. This is firmly a seller's market — most SF listings sell in about two weeks, many over asking.
| Bay Area Metric | Reading |
|---|---|
| SF inventory supply | ~1.2 months |
| SF price change YoY | +16% |
| Avg days on market (SF) | ~14 days |
Tips for Bay Area Buyers & Sellers
For buyers: In a market where homes sell in two weeks, preparation wins. Get fully pre-approved before you tour, line up your financing so you can move fast, and write a clean, decisive offer. Lean on your agent's read of each neighborhood — and reach out early so your pre-approval is rock-solid the moment the right home appears.
For sellers: You're in the driver's seat. Price strategically to spark competition, invest in strong presentation and photography, and use this demand-rich window to your advantage. With inventory this tight, well-prepared listings are commanding multiple offers — let's talk about positioning yours to win.
Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to understand what this market means for you, I'm here as your advisor. Reach out anytime at 925.718.0700 or Kaveh@MyNestMortgage.com.
Kaveh Sartipi | NMLS# 247776 | DRE# 01363588 | Answer Home Loans, Inc. is a Licensed Real Estate Broker, California Department of Real Estate DRE# 02058505 | NMLS# 1729528 | Equal Housing Lender. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to credit approval, underwriting, and program guidelines. Rates and terms subject to change without notice.
Kaveh Sartipi
Mortgage Advisor · NMLS# 247776 · Top 1% Nationally
Kaveh Sartipi is the founder of Nest Mortgage and has been helping Bay Area buyers finance their homes since 2001. With access to 70+ wholesale lenders, he specializes in finding the right loan for each client's unique situation.