Happy Memorial Day, and welcome to your Market Pulse for the week of May 25, 2026. This past week brought a familiar tug-of-war: mortgage rates ticked higher as oil prices climbed and inflation stayed sticky, while housing inventory kept building across the country. Nationally, that is slowly handing buyers more breathing room. Here in the Bay Area, the story is still very much a seller's market — and understanding that gap is the key to making a smart move right now.
Market Trends & Stats
Nationally, the spring market is finding its footing. Existing-home sales edged up 0.2% in April to a 4.02-million annual pace, defying soft consumer confidence as buyers respond to slowly improving affordability. The national median price reached $417,800 — barely above where it stood a year ago — and inventory climbed to 4.4 months of supply. That adds up to the most balanced national picture in years: more homes on the market, more negotiating room, and prices that are essentially flat.
| Metric | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Existing-home sales (annualized) | 4.02M | +0.2% month-over-month |
| National median home price | $417,800 | +0.9% year-over-year |
| Inventory supply | 4.4 months | Slightly higher vs. 2025 |
The Bay Area is the clear exception to this national balancing act — more on that below.
Mortgage Rate Update
Mortgage rates moved higher late last week. The 30-year fixed national average sat near 6.62% on Friday before easing slightly toward 6.56% to start this week, while the 15-year fixed is hovering around 5.85%. Bond yields climbed to their highest level in months as investors weighed persistent inflation and rising energy costs.
| Rate Snapshot | 30-Year Fixed (national avg) |
|---|---|
| Friday, May 22, 2026 | 6.62% |
| Monday, May 25, 2026 | 6.56% |
Current rates are published on NestMortgage.ai/rates and update regularly. Subject to qualification.
Inside Lending Insight: New-listing activity continues to outpace last year, national asking prices have now declined year-over-year for 17 straight weeks, and there are more than 2,600 down payment assistance programs available nationwide. Even with rates elevated, the affordability picture is quietly improving for first-time and entry-level buyers.
Economy News
Three forces are shaping mortgage rates right now. Oil is the headline: WTI crude pushed above $98 a barrel as Middle East supply disruptions persisted, and higher energy prices feed directly into inflation. The labor market held steady, with unemployment unchanged at 4.3% and 115,000 jobs added in April. And the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with markets pricing in essentially no change at the June meeting.
| Economic Indicator | Latest Reading |
|---|---|
| WTI crude oil | $98+ per barrel |
| U.S. unemployment rate | 4.3% |
| Federal funds target rate | 3.50%–3.75% |
The bottom line: until inflation cools meaningfully, mortgage rates are likely to stay range-bound. Trying to time a dramatic drop is a gamble — and a poor substitute for a solid plan.
Bay Area Local Housing
Now the local picture, and it looks nothing like the national one. The Bay Area remains firmly a seller's market. San Francisco inventory sits near 1.2 months — extraordinarily tight — and well-priced homes are averaging just 14 days on market, with multiple offers still common.
County by county, the spread is wide. San Mateo led the region with its median up 11.6% year-over-year to roughly $2.06M. San Francisco rose 10.9% to about $1.70M, keeping it among the highest-priced markets in the nation. Santa Clara — buoyed by the AI and semiconductor boom — held firm with a modest gain. The East Bay is softer: Contra Costa slipped 4.1% and Alameda 5.7% year-over-year, which gives move-up buyers a little more room to negotiate. Marin's higher-end market remains steady.
The AI and tech surge continues to drive renewed demand in San Francisco, San Jose, SoMa, and Mission Bay, and core neighborhoods like Pacific Heights, Noe Valley, and Bernal Heights are still leading on price growth.
Tips for Bay Area Buyers & Sellers
For buyers: Get fully pre-approved before you tour — not just pre-qualified. In a market where well-priced homes sell in about two weeks, a strong, verified pre-approval is what lets you act the moment you find the right home. Keep your offer clean, lean on your agent's read of each neighborhood, and have your financing lined up in advance. Speed and preparation are everything here.
For sellers: You are in the driver's seat, and spring is an excellent time to list. Pricing strategy still matters, though — sharply priced homes are drawing multiple offers while overpriced listings sit. Invest in presentation with professional photos, thoughtful staging, and strong curb appeal, price it right from day one, and let buyer competition work in your favor.
Whichever side of the table you're on, reach out to me directly and let's build a plan around your goals and your numbers.
Kaveh Sartipi | NMLS# 247776 | DRE# 01363588 | Answer Home Loans, Inc. is a Licensed Real Estate Broker, California Department of Real Estate DRE# 02058505 | NMLS# 1729528 | Equal Housing Lender. This is not a commitment to lend. All loans subject to credit approval, underwriting, and program guidelines. Rates and terms subject to change without notice.
Kaveh Sartipi
Mortgage Advisor · NMLS# 247776 · Top 1% Nationally
Kaveh Sartipi is the founder of Nest Mortgage and has been helping Bay Area buyers finance their homes since 2001. With access to 70+ wholesale lenders, he specializes in finding the right loan for each client's unique situation.